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陈昌业
文/陈昌业
“本来以为‘变5’能像‘速8’一样火爆,凌晨就排几个满场,没想到几个影院凌晨首映场都没排满座,就都没有加场。”
《变形金刚5》上映的前一天,在上海,壹娱观察(微信ID:yiyuguancha)跟几位影院经理们聊起了这部外界传言国内保底26亿的明星影片。出乎意料的是,他们一个个直摇头——当时的零点场预售状况让他们很难乐观,完全没有出现火爆和加场的现象。
根据猫眼专业版的统计,《变形金刚5》的零点场票房为4341.9万元,场次为14975场;2个月前的《速度与激情8》,零点场票房为6288.6万元,场次为18739,该片已近尾声,总票房约为26.7亿元;一年前的《魔兽》,零点场票......
陈昌业

影院的票房焦虑怎么解决?

陈昌业 06月23日

壹娱观察主编

——一座300亿的非票收入金矿她想与影院共享
文/陈昌业
指望票房来拯救日益严峻的影院经营现状——不现实,也现实。
所谓不现实在于,单银幕产出、上座率这些代表经营效率的指标,随着全国影市的降温,自2016年以来每况愈下,对任何一家影院经理来说,周边的新增影院、新增银幕越来越多,但自己的和竞争对手的日子都不怎么好过。原新影联院线副总高军在今年初接受媒体采访时曾说,“2016(大部分影院的单银幕产出)普遍都低了十好几万,最严重的是新建影院的单银幕产出只有80万。比成熟的影院低的更多,这是有警示作用的——院线和影院的生存出现了一定的问题。”
图表转载自网络
陈昌业
文/陈昌业
19日,由孚惠资本主办,以渔科技承办的“监管风暴下影视产业的投资新逻辑”论坛在在上海展览中心西二馆举办,孚惠资本董事长胡明发表了主题演讲,随后耀客传媒董事长吕超、阅文集团副总裁罗立、孚惠资本首席投资官狄斌斌以及胡明一起在圆桌论坛部分就论坛主题贡献了更多的真知灼见。
左起胡明、吕超、罗立、狄斌斌、陈昌业
当视频网站抛出56个大IP项目,电视台采购主任们惊觉,为什么好多我们不知道?
胡明在演讲里提到当下“不做网生内容的娱乐公司是没有前途的”,吕超则从另一个角度讲了内容生产公司拥抱网生内容的必然性。
“在刚刚过去的上海电视节,对所有电视台的采购主......
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NEW ENERGY: Tesla EV Plan Lands in Shanghai — Again

阳歌 06月20日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Tesla is likely to announce a new $9 billion electric car joint venture in Shanghai within the next two months, which could begin production as the industry starts to gain traction in the next 1-2 years.
Tesla on cusp of electric car JV
Almost a year to the day after media reported an imminent deal that would see electric car maker Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) set up a plant in Shanghai, new reports are emerging saying the long delayed deal will finally be announced. Anyone sensing a bit of "boy who cried wolf" with the latest reports is probably justif......
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中介帮老外在华找伙伴,但要注意
对很多人而言,中国可能是泱泱中央帝国,但对来华投资或者设立企业或办事处的西方人来说,当他们在一个语言、文化和其他方面存在看不见的障碍的时候,他们一定不想被陷在中间。
这样的商业沟壑为第三方代理人创造出一个蓬勃发展的业务。从出售融资服务到帮助确定直接投资机会或合资机会,他们为外国人创造了舒适的利基商业机会。在西方,这些代理人可能会被称之为交易人,但与我们通常认为的并购专家或者投行人员有所不同。
把这些人称为蛇油贩子(美国版的江湖郎中:译者注)可能过于夸张,回到过去,当时这些假把式在美国和其他一些国家游走叫卖所谓的包治百病的万能药。当然,我们都知道,那些......
陈昌业
文/陈昌业
本文虽然是因18日上午的上海国际电影业产业高峰论坛而作,但一些思考却是最近一段时间里一直在脑海里反复涌起的。所以,我无意针对现场的任何一家公司。
每家大公司的领导们上台前都该问下自己:讲过那么多道理,拍出好电影了吗?
“事实上我们也没有能力预测五年之后的事情,所以也没有必要对这些东西(作者注:无谓的探讨)投入太多的精力。我甚至也认为我们是不是不要搞这么多的探讨?各种各样的论坛太多了,好好去做,有时间去做。”
这是光线传媒董事长王长田今早的语重心长,虽然有点不给主办方面子——但这其实是不给中国电影产业面子,只是作为观察了多年的媒体来说,双手支持。
陈昌业
题图授权自视觉中国,未经许可不得转载
编译/徐梓豪、陈昌业
菲什曼进行了一个粗略的计算,通过引进PVOD,大片厂每年最少可以多挣7.4亿美元,最多可以达到18亿美元。如果他们完全放弃院线发行,利润的增幅可能会达到24亿美元。
尽管Netflix在戛纳铩羽而归,但这并不意味着影院这门生意仍能稳固。在好莱坞,大片厂们已经举起了PVOD的大旗——与其给Netflix革了影院的命挣了自己的钱,不如自己赚了这笔钱,同时积极对抗Netflix。
PVOD即高端付费点播(Premium Video on Demand),是好莱坞大制片厂们提出的一种全新的发行模式,比电影票价、DVD更贵,打破传统90天的VOD发行窗口期,接近于与影院同期上线流媒体。
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CONSUMER: Hon Hai, Hisense in Battle for Sharp Brand

阳歌 06月14日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: A spat between Hisense and Sharp over the former's use of the latter's brand name spotlights the dangers of relying on such licensing agreements for Chinese companies going abroad.
Sharp sues Hisense over brand agreement
An entertaining battle is rippling through the headlines as we head into mid-week, pitting Taiwanese contract manufacturing titan Hon Hai (Taipei: 2317) against Chinese TV maker Hisense (Shanghai: 600060) in a battle for the Sharp (Tokyo: 6753) brand name. This is essentially the story of two giants with very l......
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E-COMMERCE: Alibaba’s Tmall Steps Into Southeast Asia

阳歌 06月13日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Alibaba's launch of its popular Tmall into several markets with large Chinese populations shows it is still looking for a strong overseas formula, underscoring its dependence on China for the foreseeable future.
Tmall marches into Singapore
E-commerce juggernaut Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is making its latest global expansion noise with word that it will launch a version of its popular B2C Tmall online marketplace targeting overseas buyers in Southeast Asia. I have to admit I'm not completely sure about the significance of the move, since the company al......
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CHIPS: Chinese Buyer Makes Last-Ditch Effort at Lattice

阳歌 06月12日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Lattice Semiconductor's sale to a Chinese buyer stands a 50-50 chance of getting national security clearance, benefiting from warming ties between the US and China and lack of defense-related technologies involved.
Lattice still trying to sell to Chinese buyer
More than a year after it first became an acquisition target for chip-hungry Chinese buyers, Lattice Semiconductor (Nasdaq: LSCC) is back in the headlines again with what looks like a last-ditch effort at salvaging a sale. Lattice is clearly a mid-sized maker of microchips that fits the profile ......
王莉

【评论】中国式监管困局:从A股市场上的几股力量说起

王莉 06月09日

离漓,做过政府办秘书;做过一线财经媒体金融记者;做过国际公关公司企业传播

离漓 | 文 
随着近两周IPO核发批文数量减少,监管政策似乎开始有所松动。A股为期一年零三个月的“刘氏新政”,似乎出现转向。预期的纠偏在舆论绑架下,眼看就要功亏一篑。
1.  建言者众  多为利往
A股意见领袖太多,有几个不是为了一己之力在狠狠作秀?如此“挟‘股民’以‘令’主席’”之行为,将股市民粹主义演绎到极致。
近两周来,围绕股市监管政策的走向,各大舆论平台集中涌现各路意见。试图“出谋划策”的“专家”中,有自带影响力的意见领袖(KOL),也有因关乎监管走向的出格言论,才增加了影响力,于是更变本加厉......
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Bottom line: A Chinese group's plan to buy the Chicago Stock Exchange could get vetoed by the US securities regulator over concerns about the buyer's inability to prevent the market from becoming a breeding ground for financial abuses.
SEC takes time on Chicago Stock Exchange sale review
Nearly a year and a half after it was first announced, the sale of the Chicago Stock Exchange to an obscure Chinese buyer is still awaiting approval, in what would be a relatively landmark deal in the finance space. I'll admit I was a bit surprised to read that this partic......
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SMARTPHONES: Lenovo Eyeing CEO Change?

阳歌 06月06日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Yang Yuanqing is likely to cede his CEO title at Lenovo to recently returned executive Liu Jun soon, which could be followed by more risk taking and big changes to the company's lackluster smartphone unit.
Lenovo's Yang set to cede CEO title?
I used to make fun of mobile carrier China Unicom (HKEx: 763; NYSE: CHU) for its never-ending management reshuffles, but now the more respectable Lenovo (HKEx: 992) is quickly taking that title with its own series of nonstop personnel moves in a bid to right its sputtering ship. What's interesti......
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Bottom line: Alibaba may have to tone down its aggressive style of data collection from its business partners following a tiff with SF Express, but its business won't face any major impact.
SF takes on Cainiao in data wars
A conflict involving leading courier SF Express (Shenzhen: 002352) and Alibaba's (NYSE: BABA) Cainiao logistics arm was all over the headlines at the end of last week, in a clash of titans that saw the pair suddenly sever their business relationship. At the center of the issue was data, and Alibaba's near obsession with getting......
陈昌业
在国产片十余部“阵亡”于端午战场之后,看到一部将要等待三年的国产巨制三部曲“起范”,终于还是让人有了一点乐观的心情。
在端午节后,5月31日,乌尔善在《鬼吹灯》之后的新作《封神三部曲》(以下简称《封神》)在京举办了启动仪式。乌尔善在发布会上透露,该系列的制作时间跨度近10年,已经过四年的剧本打磨,影片计划于2018年正式开机,计划于2020年至2022年分三年暑期档陆续上映。
发布会现场
乌尔善和江志强的组合之所以令笔者充满期待,是因为两人确实有实打实的重特效电影的创作、制片成功经验——《寻龙诀》和《捉妖记》的成功可不是偶然,有兴趣的读者回看下我们专栏作者朔方之前对这两部......
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INTERNET: Crisis Grows for LeEco’s Coolpad, Yidao

阳歌 06月01日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Ongoing crises being faced by LeEco-backed Yidao and Coolpad are likely to deepen in the month ahead, as each company gets abandoned by its major stakeholder and is forced to grapple with rapidly deteriorating business.
Coolpad releases preliminary 2016 results
Two companies snapped up by former online video superstar LeEco (Shenzhen: 300104) are in the crisis headlines this morning, with smartphone maker Coolpad (HKEx: 2369) and car services operator Yidao both driving rapidly towards financial collapse. The first headline has Coolpad......
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INTERNET: Alibaba Pumps Up Ele.me, Baidu Takeout in Play?

阳歌 05月30日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Alibaba could take control of Ele.me after the latter's latest fund-raising, and then make a bid for Baidu's take-out dining service, leaving just two major players in the sector as it nears a more sustainable state.
Alibaba set to swallow Ele.me?
The take-out dining wars have taken another interesting twist, with word that one of the oldest players, Ele.me, is on the cusp of raising a fresh $1 billion in new funds. What's interesting about this latest fund raising is that it's being led by Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), which is also trying t......
陈昌业
文/陈昌业
壹娱注:本文受《红旗文稿》邀约,写于两个月前,是此前在艺术研究院的一次讨论发言所进行的文字整理。
博纳刚刚宣布以主投身份投资8000万美元于罗兰·艾默里奇的新片《中途岛》,中国资本走出去的脚步不断加快,但大家并不常常回看经验,总是用勇气和梦想赌运气。不管之后中国电影公司、电影人会以怎样的成功或是遗憾去不断向前地在海外征战,去年的《长城》仍是无法回避和值得细看的一个里程碑案例。
虽然《长城》的话题热度已经过去,但它在中国影史上的价值和意义仍然值得反复讨论。很难用票房数字意义上的成功或失败来简单地盖棺论定这部影片,特别是在“走出去”这一长期的战略目标下,于政府、于......
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INTERNET: Sharing Economy Opens to Umbrellas

阳歌 05月26日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: A new umbrella-sharing company reflects China's tendency to overzealously jump into new trends, in this case shared economy ventures, and is likely to fold within its first two years.
Startup sees big bucks in shared umbrellas
China is rapidly emerging as ground zero for new concepts in the sharing economy. Our streets have already become flooded with shared bicycles, shared smartphone batteries are finding their way into our shops, and shared offices are taking over our cities. Now a new company has found yet another way to share, with word that a startup has ......
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INTERNET: Sohu Brings Home Changyou, LeEco Slashes Jobs

阳歌 05月24日

财新传媒英文部编辑

Bottom line: Sohu could privatize and sell itself after its Changyou buyout, while LeEco's mass layoffs could presage a shuttering of all its newer operations as it reverts to its original online video business.
LeEco slashes jobs
Two relatively large pullbacks are in the headlines as we reach the midpoint of the week, led by the latest privatization bid for online game specialist Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) by parent Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU). That news is coupled with the unrelated by equally large retrenchment by struggling online video company LeEco ......

精彩评论

孙越 史上有很多传奇,更有很多英雄,他们的死彰显生命的价值。

原文:对外侦察局的掏心猎手

zhangmingxiao 这个不是一起超售事件,是美联航因为内部员工需要乘坐飞机,旅客满员的情况下利用超售这个工具来达到赶下旅客的目的。

原文:美联航赶乘客下飞机 资深机长告诉你是否违规

郭杰群 在美国,地产开发商将出售资产所得在一定期限内进行类似房产的再投资可以享受一定的免税条款。这在我国当前还不具备,因此在一定程度上制约了地产商的能动性。

原文:REIT的海外发展及启示

Lypsey3543 “据个人了解,中国一线城市住宅投资收益率不会高于3,美国可以达到6。”作者这里说的应是租金收益率。首先,因(特大)人口增长加速,在新兴市场投资房产,主要看资本利得,动态租金收益要会延后实现,静态比较同期没有太大意义。其次,物业年均持有成本,纽约和中国一线城市不可比。第三,纽约和曼哈顿是两个概念。离开曼岛,租金中位数值完全是不是一个档次。而中国一线城市的租金上涨范围更大。因为仍处于成长期。总体而言,虽然在中美两国都投资的是房产,但从收益分布特征和波动率来说,完全可以看作是差别极大的两类资产。就如同高等级债券和蓝筹股票,横比收益没有意义,因为后者大幅超越。归根结底更可能是风险偏好异质性(含Demographic factors)和经济周期所处阶段决定了投资者更偏爱哪一类。

原文:2017年美国房地产市场展望——美国市场、中国视角

王争春 价格和土地供给的问题,我们慢慢谈。市场有垄断市场、寡头市场和竞争市场,定价规则自然有差异。

原文:面对房价,教科书自焚吗?经济规律笑了

叶伟强 需求、供给、货币,都是影响价格的重要因素

原文:房价之谜 | 悬而未决的崩盘隐忧(完整版)

zhangmingxiao 合理吗?

原文:房价之谜(三)| 中国房价到底“合理”吗?

北方的小狼 中国特色,都是小民倒霉!哎!

原文:广西“吃穿山甲”案的厨师:匹夫无罪,怀璧其罪

abcnews 张老师这篇写得精彩。看来经济解释值得再去看一遍。几点想问一下:一是中国现在外汇减少,所以关税啥的肯定不会轻易取消,走一带一路推出人民币是稳定币值的好方法,不过确实以什么为锚呢?二是日本经济停滞,但听说日本人其实是进入了伊甸园阶段,收入啥的可能没增加,实际感受却始终稳定。这算好路吗?

原文:从中国先拔头筹看天下大势

孙越 (强)这会说得好!特朗普跟俄国商人绝不仅仅是生意往来吧。(呵呵)

原文:特朗普的俄国情结

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